Published on 16 Jun 2026

From housing to wellbeing: how Te Toi Mahana's integrated model creates $2.78 of social value for every dollar invested

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9 FIONA 1x1 PORTRAIT 1
Dr Fiona Scott-Melton Performance + Impact Lead (NZ) Contact me
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Dr Brendan Stevenson Quantitative Analytics Lead Contact me
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Jodie O'Neill Chief People, Culture + Capability Officer Contact me

Te Toi Mahana is Pōneke's largest community housing provider, managing nearly 1,800 homes. As a newly established organisation, it needed to demonstrate the real value of its work — not just to Wellington City Council, but to the wider sector. Allen + Clarke, working in partnership with Tuia Group, produced an independent performance analysis including sector insights (led by Tuia Group) and a performance logic and Social Return on Investment (SROI) (led by Allen + Clarke). Three insights stood out: modelling five distinct tenant cohorts revealed how different groups benefit differently from the same investment; sensitivity analysis identified mental health as the primary value driver; and counterfactual modelling quantified the real cost of not investing — giving funders a clear, defensible basis for continued support.

The performance logic became an operational tool — giving the organisation a shared framework to anchor decisions and reporting into the future. The findings confirmed that Te Toi Mahana's integrated approach to housing, tenancy support, and community development generates real, measurable value for the people it serves.

Read the full report here.

Allen + Clarke's analysis gave Te Toi Mahana a clear, evidence-based investment case to take to Wellington City Council and the wider sector. The SROI showed Te Toi Mahana's integrated model generates $2.78 for every dollar invested.

A new organisation with a big mandate

Te Toi Mahana was established in early 2023 following the transfer of Wellington City Council's social housing operations. Its name, gifted by mana whenua partners, means "the place of caring and nurturing, standing and belonging." As Pōneke's largest registered Community Housing Provider, Te Toi Mahana manages 1,771 WCC-owned homes and housed 2,706 tenants across the city. Community development sat at the heart of its model — it is not simply a landlord. From the outset, Te Toi Mahana understood that its purpose is to improve lives, not just provide shelter.

Operating in Wellington's tight housing market — marked by limited land, high costs, and constrained subsidies — Te Toi Mahana faced pressure to demonstrate its social value in concrete terms. As a newly formed organisation, it did not yet have the performance data systems or historical evidence that more established providers could draw on. At the same time, the policy environment was shifting: funders and central government increasingly expected measurable social outcomes, not just occupancy rates. Te Toi Mahana needed a credible, independently verified performance story.

Te Toi Housing 02
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Building the evidence base

Allen + Clarke was appointed alongside Tuia Group to understand and assess Te Toi Mahana's performance story. Tuia Group led the community housing sector insights and organisational benchmarking. Allen + Clarke led the performance logic, performance measurement framework, and SROI calculation. The two organisations worked closely to produce a unified, coherent report. The work required specialist knowledge across SROI methodology, the Treasury CBAx tool for monetising social outcomes, counterfactual modelling, and sensitivity analysis.

The approach was designed to be rigorous without overstating what the available data could support. Allen + Clarke:

  • Co-developed a performance logic with Te Toi Mahana — mapping housing, tenancy support, and community development as interconnected outcomes, not separate activities.

  • Modelled five distinct tenant cohorts (families, children under 15, elderly tenants, high-support tenants, and general individuals) to capture how different groups benefit differently from the same investment.

  • Applied validated proxies — the Treasury CBAx tool and Otago University respiratory disease prevalence data — to monetise outcomes where direct data was limited.

  • Built a counterfactual model, assuming tenants in private rental, to isolate Te Toi Mahana's specific contribution to outcomes.

  • Ran sensitivity analysis to identify which variables most affected the SROI result.

Te Toi Mahana's performance story

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Results that made the investment case

The analysis produced a clear, evidence-based picture of what Te Toi Mahana delivers for its tenants and for society.

  • SROI of $2.78 for every $1 invested (range $1.44–$4.10) — in line with Treasury's expected range for SROI calculations.

  • Counterfactual of -$0.26 — confirming that poor and insecure housing would impose a net cost on society without Te Toi Mahana's services.

  • Performance logic and measurement framework embedded in Te Toi Mahana's operations — providing a practical, ongoing tool for decisions and sector reporting.

  • Clear evidence that the integrated model (housing, tenancy support, and community development) generates outcomes that housing alone cannot achieve.

  • A strong, quantified basis for continued investment in tenancy sustainment — identified as the highest-impact area for ongoing social value.

The Te Toi Mahana Operating Model 06